Lab 8: Climate Change

Part 1: Climate Change

I chose an article from the US Environmental Protection Agency, titled Climate Impacts in the South West.  This article was one of eight, covering the separate regions of the United States. As the title suggests, this article reviews the potential impacts on the south west that climate change could bring.What portion or portions of this information do you accept as sound science? State a thoughtful reason for accepting. What portion or portions, do you question? State a thoughtful answer for questioning. You must have an answer for each part. (8 points)There was excellent information in this article; the majority I deem credible. Particularly, I believe their information regarding increasing temperatures was supported. This information appears accurate, as there are credible, traceable sources provided. Additionally, they provide a clear visual in the form of a map, pin pointing the variance in temperatures of the greater south west area. While the majority of the information presented appeared quite credible, I questioned their notations regarding population increase. The article states there will be a population increase of 70% by 2050.   Given the discussions, chapters, and projects we have just completed regarding population growth, I questioned this estimate; specifically keeping in mind the number of variables that can affect the outcome in population. While I understand an 'estimation' is just that, an educated guess, it continues to play a role in my comprehension and position with the other information provided in the article. A large piece involved in the climate change is correlated with the population growth at it is stated; if this information is altered, their entire projection could change along with it.

What are three places can find answers to the parts you question?  (3 points)When questioning an estimated population outcome, I began with where the EPA got their statistics from. This traced back to globalchange.gov. Their information was not original either; from here I traced the numbers to the Assessment of Climate Change in the South West United States. While this report is incredibly comprehensive, when seeking the specific information pertaining to their population estimate, I could not locate it within the report; this report is several hundred pages; however, it did not appear to be found within the cited pages. After having little luck reviewing where the population estimates came from, I opted to look at a few credible cites, noting what their estimates were. If they were similar, I would feel the questionable data was more sound than originally expected; if not, I would continue to hold my position that a population estimate holds too many variables to be too accurate.  I found the following:

• America2050.org Noted growth of major cities in the south west of the US, but did not provide an overall estimate.

• Projecting the U.S. Population in 2050 - Provided an in-depth look at the projected immigration into the U.S. Again, I found myself coming up without an actual answer regarding percentages. This report did specify how they were coming up with answers, including utilizing a formula that would account for a birth rate of 2.05 - 2.59 children per household. Last year, the birthrate was noted at 1.87 children per household.  

• Population, Immigration, and the Drying of the South West This site reviewed the dyer water issues we face now, in addition to what will be faced in years to come. This article did not commit to an estimate of the 2050 population either.

My take away from attempting to find sources for this information was that it is not easily attained. I will note, the Assessment of Climate Change in the South West United States came up 5th in my search. In reading these articles and reports, I noted they echo the same message as the EPA; the South West cannot support more people. In closing, I decided to take the '70%' with a grain of salt, and focus on the message of the article, knowing the point of an estimate is simply an educated guess.Does having a background in Environmental Biology help you make decisions about what information about the environment you will accept? Explain in some detail and include something about what you know now that you did not know at the beginning of the class. (5 points)As noted above, there was a wealth of information covered regarding population in this class. I believe prior to experiencing this class, I would have simply accepted the information given. I believe a large attribute I have gained from this class surrounds asking questions; just because information is given on a well known site, does not make it automatically accurate.  It is a worthwhile process to follow up with sources and to play 'devils advocate' where applicable.  Additionally, the HHMI video we just watched provided excellent questions to ask when reviewing scientific findings: follow a methodological standards, evidential standards, performance standards, and asking if there is an expert consensus on the matter. 

"Climate Impacts in the Southwest." Environmental Protection Agency. United States Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 26 Oct. 2015.

Part 2: Biotic Communities

I live in the Prescott Area. My Biotic Community is known as:

122.3 Petran Montane Conifer Forest